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Midlothian TX homebuyers reviewing a payment worksheet outside a home as Midlothian home prices change

Are Midlothian, TX Home Prices Dropping in 2026?

October 21, 2026

Last updated: October 21, 2026

Are Midlothian, TX Home Prices Dropping in 2026?

By Steven J. Thomas, Broker, Refind Realty DFW · Loan Officer, Envision Home Lending LLC, NMLS #689220. Baylor financial planning degree, 20+ years in financial services.

Yes, slightly. Midlothian's median sold price was $470,000 in September 2026, down 4.2% from $490,500 a year earlier (NTREIS). The payment went the other way. At 7.40% against 6.27% a year ago, the median home costs about $182 more a month. Waiting for lower prices did not lower the bill.

Waiting for rates is a losing bet, and Midlothian shows the math. Prices slipped $20,500. The rate climbed 113 basis points. The rate won.

Are Midlothian home prices going down?

Midlothian's median sold price fell from $490,500 to $470,000 between September 2025 and September 2026, a 4.2% drop on 61 closed sales (NTREIS). City medians on 61 sales swing with the mix of homes that closed, so read the direction, not the decimal. Homes also moved faster: median days on market fell from 96 to 83.

Midlothian, single familySep 2026Sep 2025Change
Median sold price$470,000$490,500-4.2%
Closed sales61not shownn/a
Pending sales5860-2
Active listings293not shownn/a
Median days on market8396-13 days
Months of supply4.63.9+0.7
Sold-to-list ratio95.7%not shownn/a

Source: NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026, released October 7, 2026.

What does the price drop do to a Midlothian monthly payment?

With 20% down, a $470,000 purchase means a $376,000 loan. Principal and interest is about $2,603 a month at 7.40% (7.47% APR). A buyer who paid last year's median of $490,500 at 6.27% had a $392,400 loan and about $2,421 a month. Today's buyer pays $182 more every month for a cheaper house.

Split it. The same $376,000 loan at 6.27% would be about $2,320, so the rate adds $283 a month. The $20,500 price drop saves about $101 at that rate. The rate outweighs the price cut by $182.

Rates are Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly averages for October 15, 2026, and the same week a year earlier (6.27%), from freddiemac.com/pmms, not quoted rates. Payments cover principal and interest only, not taxes, insurance, or HOA dues. APRs assume $1,495 in lender fees, 0 points, and 15 days of prepaid interest, with no mortgage insurance. This is an illustrative example, not a loan offer or a rate lock. Steven J. Thomas, NMLS #689220, Envision Home Lending LLC, Company NMLS #2619789.

How far below asking do Midlothian homes sell?

Midlothian homes closed at 95.7% of list in September 2026 (NTREIS). On the $470,000 median that is about $21,100 under asking, my arithmetic, implying a list price near $491,100. That room to negotiate is real, and a seller credit toward a rate buydown can use it. For the full negotiating picture, see how far below asking Mansfield homes sell, which runs the same math one town over.

Should you wait for Midlothian prices to fall further?

Based on current conditions, waiting has cost more than it saved. Supply rose from 3.9 to 4.6 months, which gives buyers more choice and more room to negotiate. Pending sales are 58 against 60, so buyers are still signing. Nobody can promise where prices or rates go next.

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026. The Federal Reserve's own statement is at federalreserve.gov. A lender runs your numbers in minutes: get pre-approved in minutes and see your real payment at today's rate.

Shopping new construction instead? Builders discount through financing, not price. Read how to negotiate a Midlothian new build. For a neighbor comparison, Red Oak's median rose 8% in the same report.

FAQ: Midlothian home prices

What is the median home price in Midlothian, TX?

$470,000 for single-family homes sold in September 2026, down 4.2% from $490,500 a year earlier (NTREIS).

Is Midlothian a buyer's market?

Midlothian has 4.6 months of supply, which is balanced. Buyers close about 4.3% under list, based on the 95.7% sold-to-list ratio (NTREIS, September 2026).

How long do homes sit on the market in Midlothian?

A median 83 days in September 2026, down from 96 a year earlier (NTREIS).

How much do I need to earn to buy a Midlothian home at the median price?

That depends on your debts, taxes, and insurance. Principal and interest alone is about $2,603 a month on the median home with 20% down. A lender confirms the rest when you get pre-approved.

Do new builds cost more than resale in Midlothian?

The NTREIS report excludes builder direct sales, so its median understates new-build prices. Compare incentives, not just list prices, before you sign.

Data source: NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026.

Steven J. Thomas · Broker, Refind Realty DFW · TREC Broker License #0657467 · Loan Officer, Envision Home Lending LLC · NMLS #689220 · Company NMLS #2619789. Call or text 972-846-9170. Equal Housing Opportunity. Information About Brokerage Services and the Consumer Protection Notice are available at trec.texas.gov. Market data reflects current conditions and is not a guarantee of price or timeline.

Midlothian TX home pricesMidlothian TXMidlothian median pricebuy a house MidlothianMidlothian housing market
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Steven J. Thomas

Steven J. Thomas is a dual-licensed real estate broker (#0657467) and loan officer (NMLS #689220) based in DeSoto, Texas, serving the Southwest Dallas–Fort Worth corridor — DeSoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Red Oak, Waxahachie, Midlothian, and Mansfield. As a broker at Refind Realty DFW and a loan officer with Envision Home Lenders, he handles the sale and the financing of a move as one plan, not two separate transactions. A Baylor University financial planning graduate with 20+ years in financial services, Thomas focuses on the full picture — equity, timing, credit, and the next move — not just the house. He helps DFW Homeowners sell their current home and buy or build new construction in the DFW Area.

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Steven J Thomas

Steven J. Thomas

Steven J. Thomas has been in the financial services industry for the past 19 years and started my career as a Financial Planner for American Express Financial Advisors. I entered into banking with JP Morgan Chase as personal banker in 2003 and was promoted several times up to Small Business Specialist. I earned multiple Million Dollar Club awards and was ranked in the top 5 Small Business Specialist before I branched out in 2005 to start my own Financial Management Company. I ran a successful company before family circumstances lead me to Wachovia Bank in 2008 where I worked as a Senior Financial Specialist. As a Sr. Financial Specialist; I was responsible for the P & L and revenue growth of my banking center. The elimination of my role thru a bank merger lead me to BBVA Compass. I have held various leadership roles at BBVA Compass including Personal Relationship Manager, Branch Retail Executive, Workplace Solutions VP, and his current role as a Retail Manager. As the Regional Workplace Solutions VP, I was responsible for the strategic, tactical, and execution of Partnership Banking relationships, promotion and activity with corporate and non-profit companies in my footprint. I was responsible for the acquisition production for three districts, which includes 51 banking centers and over 300 employees. In May of 2014, I joined the team at Refind Realty and became one of the managing partners in mid-2015.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why do you need a Realtor?

When buying or selling a home, there are so many options…which can also present a lot of obstacles. Laws change, forms change, and practices change all the time in the real estate industry. Because it’s our job to stay on top of those things, hiring a realtor reduces risk, and can also save you a lot of money in the long run.

When you work with me as your Realtor, you’re getting an expert who knows the area; knows how to skillfully guide your experience as a seller or buyer; can easily spot the difference between a good deal and a great deal. My job is to translate your dream into a real estate reality, and I work hard to earn and keep my business. This also means earning your trust: When you work with me, you’ll be working with a realtor who looks out for your best interests and is invested in your goals.

Which loan should you choose?

There are two different types of loans conventional loans and government-backed loans. The main difference is who insures these loans:

1 - Government-backed loans (FHA, VA and USDA):

(a) - Are, unsurprisingly, backed by the government.

(b) - Include FHA loans, VA loans, and USDA loans.

(c) - Make up less than 40 percent of the home loans generated in the U.S. each year.

2 - Conventional loans

(a) - Are not backed by the government.

(b) - Include conforming and non-conforming loans (such as jumbo loans).

(c) - Make up more than 60 percent of the loans generated in the U.S. each year.

What is the difference between FHA, VA and USDA loans?

1 - FHA LOANS:

FHA loans, which are insured by the Federal Housing Administration, are typically designed to meet the needs of first-time homebuyers with low or moderate incomes. FHA loans can be approved with a down payment of as little as 3.5 percent and a credit score as low as 580.

FHA loans are often called “helper loans,” because they give a leg up to potential borrowers who may not be able to secure one otherwise. For this reason, FHA loans have maximum lending limits, which are determined based on housing values for the county where the for-sale home is located.

Because the agency is taking on more risk by insuring FHA loans, the borrower is expected to pay mortgage insurance both at the time of closing and on a monthly basis, and the property must be owner-occupied.

2 - VA LOANS:

VA loans are backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and they are guaranteed to qualified veterans and active-duty personnel and their spouses. VA loans can be approved with 100 percent financing, meaning VA borrowers are not required to make a down payment.

Unlike FHA loans, borrowers do not have to pay mortgage insurance on VA loans.

3 - USDA LOANS:

You may also hear about USDA loans, which are backed by the United States Department of Agriculture mortgage program. USDA loans are intended to support homeowners who purchase homes in rural and some suburban areas. USDA loans do not require a down payment and may offer lower interest rates; borrowers may have to pay a small mortgage insurance premium in order to offset the lender’s risk.

What’s a conventional loan? Understanding what it means to be conforming and non-conforming

Buyers who have a more established credit history and a larger down payment may prefer to apply for a conventional loan. These loans may offer a lower interest rate and only require the home buyer to purchase monthly mortgage insurance while the loan-to-value ratio is above a certain percentage, so a conventional loan borrower can typically save money in the long run.

Conventional loans are divided into two types: Conforming loans and non-conforming loans.

1 - CONFORMING LOANS:

Conforming loans are those that meet (or conform to) predetermined standards set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — two government-sponsored institutions that buy and sell mortgages on the secondary market. By selling the loans to "Fannie and Freddie," lenders can free up their capital and return to issue more mortgages than if they had to personally back every loan that they approve.

The main standard for conforming loans is that the amount borrowed must be under a certain amount; in Alaska, a single-family home loan must be under $647,200 in order to be considered conforming.

Properties with more than one unit have higher limits.

2 - NON-CONFORMING (JUMBO) LOANS:

But what happens if a borrower wants to borrow more than the Freddie- and Fannie-approved loan amount? In this case, they would have to apply for a “jumbo loan,” which is the most common type of non-conforming loan.

Because the lender cannot resell the jumbo loan (or any non-conforming loan) to Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, jumbo loans are considered to be riskier than a conforming loan. To protect against this risk, the bank will typically require a higher down payment; the interest rate on a jumbo loan may also be higher than if the same borrower applied for a conforming loan.

What kind of rate should you choose?

Rate types: Fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgages.

In addition to the loan type you choose, you’ll also have to determine if you want a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). A fixed-rate mortgage has an interest rate that does not change for the life of the loan, so it provides predictable monthly payments of principal and interest.

An adjustable-rate mortgage typically offers an initial introductory period with a low-interest rate. Once this period is over, the interest rate adjusts periodically, based on the market index. The initial interest rate on an ARM can sometimes be locked in for different periods, such as one, three, five, seven, or 10 years. Once the introductory period is over, the interest rate typically readjusts annually.

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