Are Midlothian, TX Home Prices Dropping in 2026?
Last updated: October 21, 2026
Are Midlothian, TX Home Prices Dropping in 2026?
By Steven J. Thomas, Broker, Refind Realty DFW · Loan Officer, Envision Home Lending LLC, NMLS #689220. Baylor financial planning degree, 20+ years in financial services.
Yes, slightly. Midlothian's median sold price was $470,000 in September 2026, down 4.2% from $490,500 a year earlier (NTREIS). The payment went the other way. At 7.40% against 6.27% a year ago, the median home costs about $182 more a month. Waiting for lower prices did not lower the bill.
Waiting for rates is a losing bet, and Midlothian shows the math. Prices slipped $20,500. The rate climbed 113 basis points. The rate won.
Are Midlothian home prices going down?
Midlothian's median sold price fell from $490,500 to $470,000 between September 2025 and September 2026, a 4.2% drop on 61 closed sales (NTREIS). City medians on 61 sales swing with the mix of homes that closed, so read the direction, not the decimal. Homes also moved faster: median days on market fell from 96 to 83.
| Midlothian, single family | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | $470,000 | $490,500 | -4.2% |
| Closed sales | 61 | not shown | n/a |
| Pending sales | 58 | 60 | -2 |
| Active listings | 293 | not shown | n/a |
| Median days on market | 83 | 96 | -13 days |
| Months of supply | 4.6 | 3.9 | +0.7 |
| Sold-to-list ratio | 95.7% | not shown | n/a |
Source: NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026, released October 7, 2026.
What does the price drop do to a Midlothian monthly payment?
With 20% down, a $470,000 purchase means a $376,000 loan. Principal and interest is about $2,603 a month at 7.40% (7.47% APR). A buyer who paid last year's median of $490,500 at 6.27% had a $392,400 loan and about $2,421 a month. Today's buyer pays $182 more every month for a cheaper house.
Split it. The same $376,000 loan at 6.27% would be about $2,320, so the rate adds $283 a month. The $20,500 price drop saves about $101 at that rate. The rate outweighs the price cut by $182.
Rates are Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly averages for October 15, 2026, and the same week a year earlier (6.27%), from freddiemac.com/pmms, not quoted rates. Payments cover principal and interest only, not taxes, insurance, or HOA dues. APRs assume $1,495 in lender fees, 0 points, and 15 days of prepaid interest, with no mortgage insurance. This is an illustrative example, not a loan offer or a rate lock. Steven J. Thomas, NMLS #689220, Envision Home Lending LLC, Company NMLS #2619789.
How far below asking do Midlothian homes sell?
Midlothian homes closed at 95.7% of list in September 2026 (NTREIS). On the $470,000 median that is about $21,100 under asking, my arithmetic, implying a list price near $491,100. That room to negotiate is real, and a seller credit toward a rate buydown can use it. For the full negotiating picture, see how far below asking Mansfield homes sell, which runs the same math one town over.
Should you wait for Midlothian prices to fall further?
Based on current conditions, waiting has cost more than it saved. Supply rose from 3.9 to 4.6 months, which gives buyers more choice and more room to negotiate. Pending sales are 58 against 60, so buyers are still signing. Nobody can promise where prices or rates go next.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026. The Federal Reserve's own statement is at federalreserve.gov. A lender runs your numbers in minutes: get pre-approved in minutes and see your real payment at today's rate.
Shopping new construction instead? Builders discount through financing, not price. Read how to negotiate a Midlothian new build. For a neighbor comparison, Red Oak's median rose 8% in the same report.
FAQ: Midlothian home prices
What is the median home price in Midlothian, TX?
$470,000 for single-family homes sold in September 2026, down 4.2% from $490,500 a year earlier (NTREIS).
Is Midlothian a buyer's market?
Midlothian has 4.6 months of supply, which is balanced. Buyers close about 4.3% under list, based on the 95.7% sold-to-list ratio (NTREIS, September 2026).
How long do homes sit on the market in Midlothian?
A median 83 days in September 2026, down from 96 a year earlier (NTREIS).
How much do I need to earn to buy a Midlothian home at the median price?
That depends on your debts, taxes, and insurance. Principal and interest alone is about $2,603 a month on the median home with 20% down. A lender confirms the rest when you get pre-approved.
Do new builds cost more than resale in Midlothian?
The NTREIS report excludes builder direct sales, so its median understates new-build prices. Compare incentives, not just list prices, before you sign.
Data source: NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026.
Steven J. Thomas · Broker, Refind Realty DFW · TREC Broker License #0657467 · Loan Officer, Envision Home Lending LLC · NMLS #689220 · Company NMLS #2619789. Call or text 972-846-9170. Equal Housing Opportunity. Information About Brokerage Services and the Consumer Protection Notice are available at trec.texas.gov. Market data reflects current conditions and is not a guarantee of price or timeline.
