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Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up

Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up

July 24, 20243 min read

Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up


You may have heard that there are more brand-new homes available right now than the norm. Today, about one in three homes on the market are newly built. And if you’re wondering what that means for the housing market and for your own move, here’s what you need to know.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

People remember what happened to the housing market back in 2008. And one of the factors that contributed to that crash was that there were too many homes for sale. While only part of the oversupply back then came from builders, the lasting impact is that some people still feel uneasy when they hear new home construction has ramped up.

Even though the supply of new homes has grown this year, the data shows there’s no need to worry. Builders aren’t overbuilding, they’re just catching up. 

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. Following the crash in 2008, there was a long period of underbuilding (shown in red). And it wasn’t until recently that we finally met the long-term average for how many homes are built in a typical year.

This shows, that even with the increase in new builds we’ve seen lately, there won’t suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. There’s too much of a gap to make up after over a decade of underbuilding. And if you’re still worried builders are overdoing it, here’s something else that should be reassuring. 

New Home Construction May Be at Its Peak for the Year

The latest data from the Census on housing starts (homes where builders just broke ground) and permits (homes where builders can start development soon) shows builders are slowing down their pace right now. Why is that?

They’re responding to still high mortgage rates and how those are impacting buyer demand. Basically, they’re pulling back appropriately in response to what’s happening in the market. As an article from HousingWire explains

“Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses.” 

Builders remember what happened when they overbuilt in the crash, and they’re looking to avoid a repeat of that. So, they’re being mindful and pulling back a bit.

You May Have More Options Now Versus Later

If you’re considering a newly built home, here’s how this impacts you. With builders seeking fewer permits and not breaking ground on as many new homes, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn’t mean new home construction is screeching to a stop – just that the pace is slowing down now, and that’ll impact what comes to market later this year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily show declines in about six months.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy now, you may find you’ll have more newly built options to choose from now versus later on. This may be enough reason to kick off your search.

Just be sure to work with a local real estate agent you know and trust throughout the process. An agent will have valuable insight into builder reputations and other key factors specific to your market. And if there isn’t much new construction near you, they’ll be able to point you toward a nearby area where there is.

Bottom Line

While it’s true new home construction is a bigger segment of the market than the norm, that’s not a bad thing. Builders aren’t overbuilding, and they’re responding to market signals to avoid repeating the mistakes that were made in 2008.

 

If you want to buy now while new home options may be at their peak, let’s connect.

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Steven J. Thomas

Steven J. Thomas has been in the financial services industry for the past 19 years and started my career as a Financial Planner for American Express Financial Advisors. I entered into banking with JP Morgan Chase as personal banker in 2003 and was promoted several times up to Small Business Specialist. I earned multiple Million Dollar Club awards and was ranked in the top 5 Small Business Specialist before I branched out in 2005 to start my own Financial Management Company. I ran a successful company before family circumstances lead me to Wachovia Bank in 2008 where I worked as a Senior Financial Specialist. As a Sr. Financial Specialist; I was responsible for the P & L and revenue growth of my banking center. The elimination of my role thru a bank merger lead me to BBVA Compass. I have held various leadership roles at BBVA Compass including Personal Relationship Manager, Branch Retail Executive, Workplace Solutions VP, and his current role as a Retail Manager. As the Regional Workplace Solutions VP, I was responsible for the strategic, tactical, and execution of Partnership Banking relationships, promotion and activity with corporate and non-profit companies in my footprint. I was responsible for the acquisition production for three districts, which includes 51 banking centers and over 300 employees. In May of 2014, I joined the team at Refind Realty and became one of the managing partners in mid-2015.

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I used this realtor and it was a great experience. He was patient and very helpful with our journey. He also helped us find a great lender with little hassle on the process, also got us approved for well above the market of our original home so we were able to get more house with a lower mortgage rate. So to anyone who is interested in buying a home take my advice give Steven a call. It’s worth it 😁

Bryant Loring

Steve was absolutely amazing! Everything was easy! Very professional in all aspects. Punctual, responsive, and diligent. He goes above and beyond to ensure you get to see as many homes as you’d like no matter the location. Not only was he knowledgeable about home buying, he also has a resourceful network for new home owner needs. I recommend Refind Realty to everyone!

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Ask Us Anything

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do you need a Realtor?

When buying or selling a home, there are so many options…which can also present a lot of obstacles. Laws change, forms change, and practices change all the time in the real estate industry. Because it’s our job to stay on top of those things, hiring a realtor reduces risk, and can also save you a lot of money in the long run.

When you work with me as your Realtor, you’re getting an expert who knows the area; knows how to skillfully guide your experience as a seller or buyer; can easily spot the difference between a good deal and a great deal. My job is to translate your dream into a real estate reality, and I work hard to earn and keep my business. This also means earning your trust: When you work with me, you’ll be working with a realtor who looks out for your best interests and is invested in your goals.

Which loan should you choose?

There are two different types of loans conventional loans and government-backed loans. The main difference is who insures these loans:

1 - Government-backed loans (FHA, VA and USDA):

(a) - Are, unsurprisingly, backed by the government.

(b) - Include FHA loans, VA loans, and USDA loans.

(c) - Make up less than 40 percent of the home loans generated in the U.S. each year.

2 - Conventional loans

(a) - Are not backed by the government.

(b) - Include conforming and non-conforming loans (such as jumbo loans).

(c) - Make up more than 60 percent of the loans generated in the U.S. each year.

What is the difference between FHA, VA and USDA loans?

1 - FHA LOANS:

FHA loans, which are insured by the Federal Housing Administration, are typically designed to meet the needs of first-time homebuyers with low or moderate incomes. FHA loans can be approved with a down payment of as little as 3.5 percent and a credit score as low as 580.

FHA loans are often called “helper loans,” because they give a leg up to potential borrowers who may not be able to secure one otherwise. For this reason, FHA loans have maximum lending limits, which are determined based on housing values for the county where the for-sale home is located.

Because the agency is taking on more risk by insuring FHA loans, the borrower is expected to pay mortgage insurance both at the time of closing and on a monthly basis, and the property must be owner-occupied.

2 - VA LOANS:

VA loans are backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and they are guaranteed to qualified veterans and active-duty personnel and their spouses. VA loans can be approved with 100 percent financing, meaning VA borrowers are not required to make a down payment.

Unlike FHA loans, borrowers do not have to pay mortgage insurance on VA loans.

3 - USDA LOANS:

You may also hear about USDA loans, which are backed by the United States Department of Agriculture mortgage program. USDA loans are intended to support homeowners who purchase homes in rural and some suburban areas. USDA loans do not require a down payment and may offer lower interest rates; borrowers may have to pay a small mortgage insurance premium in order to offset the lender’s risk.

What’s a conventional loan? Understanding what it means to be conforming and non-conforming

Buyers who have a more established credit history and a larger down payment may prefer to apply for a conventional loan. These loans may offer a lower interest rate and only require the home buyer to purchase monthly mortgage insurance while the loan-to-value ratio is above a certain percentage, so a conventional loan borrower can typically save money in the long run.

Conventional loans are divided into two types: Conforming loans and non-conforming loans.

1 - CONFORMING LOANS:

Conforming loans are those that meet (or conform to) predetermined standards set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — two government-sponsored institutions that buy and sell mortgages on the secondary market. By selling the loans to "Fannie and Freddie," lenders can free up their capital and return to issue more mortgages than if they had to personally back every loan that they approve.

The main standard for conforming loans is that the amount borrowed must be under a certain amount; in Alaska, a single-family home loan must be under $647,200 in order to be considered conforming.

Properties with more than one unit have higher limits.

2 - NON-CONFORMING (JUMBO) LOANS:

But what happens if a borrower wants to borrow more than the Freddie- and Fannie-approved loan amount? In this case, they would have to apply for a “jumbo loan,” which is the most common type of non-conforming loan.

Because the lender cannot resell the jumbo loan (or any non-conforming loan) to Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, jumbo loans are considered to be riskier than a conforming loan. To protect against this risk, the bank will typically require a higher down payment; the interest rate on a jumbo loan may also be higher than if the same borrower applied for a conforming loan.

What kind of rate should you choose?

Rate types: Fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgages.

In addition to the loan type you choose, you’ll also have to determine if you want a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). A fixed-rate mortgage has an interest rate that does not change for the life of the loan, so it provides predictable monthly payments of principal and interest.

An adjustable-rate mortgage typically offers an initial introductory period with a low-interest rate. Once this period is over, the interest rate adjusts periodically, based on the market index. The initial interest rate on an ARM can sometimes be locked in for different periods, such as one, three, five, seven, or 10 years. Once the introductory period is over, the interest rate typically readjusts annually.

Office 1229 E. Pleasant Run Ste 224, DeSoto TX 75115

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